Polls or Prediction Markets. Which is closer to being correct? S5E121 10.12.2026

Do you have a question or comment? Want to suggest a topic for our panel or be a guest on the Nova Society? Send us a message! James from SUNY Albany writes: I’m studying Political Science, and I fully admit I’m a political nerd. I can’t get enough of polling, and I love watching the electoral map shift almost daily. From what I’m seeing, it’s not just looking rough for Republicans; it’s starting to resemble a potential electoral disaster. It's remarkable that states like Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and even South Carolina are being discussed as competitive. I know the panel doesn’t put much faith in polling, and I understand why. Historically, polls tend to underestimate Republican support and overestimate Democratic strength. But maybe this cycle is different. It’s also interesting that mainstream outlets are giving more attention to prediction markets, treating them as potentially meaningful indicators of how races might unfold. So here are my questions: does the panel think polling might be more accurate this time around? Have pollsters actually learned anything from the last few cycles where their models missed the mark? And what about prediction markets, are they a potentially reliable source for understanding the direction of these races? Support the show The Nova Society Podcast In season 5, we will transition to 3 episodes per week and expand episode lengths for more in-depth conversations. Stay tuned for more information about our proposed weekly second channel, The Nova Society-Side Projects , where we have conversations with guests about topics important to them and to you, our listeners. Our Buzzsprout Home Landing Page Direct SMS message to the podcast from the “message us” link on our page. Support the Nova Society Email us your Questions Subscribe to the Nova Society Subscribe to our RSS Feed Join Our Facebook Page & YouTube Channe l Past episodes & read our blog Here . JCIS Apple Podcasts/ I-Tunes Spotify ...