Parsi & Landis | Did the Iran War Cost Trump the Midterms?

Did the war with Iran cost Donald Trump and the Republicans the midterm elections? Vice-President JD Vance certainly thinks so, arguing that the conflict was the principal reason for the Republican defeat and that bringing it to an end is now a political necessity. But is he right? Or were the Republicans undone principally by domestic concerns -- the cost of living, corruption, tariffs and immigration -- that had been eroding Trump’s popularity well before the war began? And has Vance, as much of the western mainstream media suggests, inadvertently strengthened Tehran’s negotiating hand by signalling that Washington lacks the political will to sustain the pressure? With Democrats now controlling both chambers of Congress, what happens next? Will they use their newfound congressional power to restrict funding for American military operations, force an end to the naval blockade of Iranian ports and press for a diplomatic settlement, irrespective of the terms? Or would abandoning the blockade amount to a strategic victory for the Iranian regime, with potentially far-reaching consequences for freedom of navigation and American credibility? And what do the election results mean for America’s relationship with Israel? With Trump himself reportedly contemplating a phased reduction in American military assistance, are we witnessing the beginnings of a fundamental reassessment of the US-Israel alliance? Trita Parsi is vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington. Joshua Landis is professor of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.